The last two match ups have been decided by a total of 4 points, despite spreads of +7 and +11.5 between FAU and LA Lafayette. Lafayette is already heading to the New Orleans Bowl after their win last week and will face either Rice or East Carolina. Florida Atlantic meanwhile is off a bye week, and have plenty to play for since over achieving and playing their best football of the season. They are a totally different team than they were in the beginning of the year and are 2-2 in their last 4 games and could easily be 3-0 in conference play at home.
The Owls have thrown the ball 58% of the time over their last 3 games and that's good news as they'll go up against the Rajin Cajuns 113th pass defense, this is the worst pass defense they've faced all year as the Cajuns allow a 154 QB rating in their road games. FAU faced FIU 98TH, and Troy 93rd and were in both of those games as they beat Troy, but lost by 10 to FIU because of a kick off return. QB Graham Wilbert has 13 TD to just 3 interceptions in conference play while completing 64.5% of his passes out of the spread offense.
FAU's struggles have been running the ball and defending the run although their run defense has stepped up of late and at home where they allow just 3.7 ypc. The Cajuns also allow 4.45 ypc on the road and are giving up 48% conversions on third downs on the road where I think FAU can have more success than Lafayette. They are better offensively and defensively on third downs in conference play. If they can avoid negative plays and turnovers and score TD's in the red zone they should be able to win this game. Lafayette is riding high with confidence after putting up 52 points and getting a bowl invitation and will likely come out flat on the road with nothing to play for. I see FAU capitalizing and having a good shot at winning the game.
The game everyone is waiting for. Everyone is now in love with Georgia based on how they played down the stretch. They have a ton of NFL talent on their team and they do for the most part deserve the hype. However, I'm looking pas that and I realize Georgia was lucky to beat Florida (which I will get o in a second) and they really had an easy schedule to get here. They didn't have to play LSU or Texas A&M and when push came to shove this team that's carried by Aaron Murray has not made plays in games against dominant defenses (South Carolina, and Florida). Both South Carolina and Florida possess top 11 run defense and Alabama is #1. Georgia was shut down in those two games scoring just 24 points. Aaron Murray was the guy that failed, 23-55, 259 yards 1 TD and 4 INT's combined. This is nothing new as he also choked in the SEC Championship last year 16-40, 163 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT's after going to that game under similar circumstances of not playing some of the best SEC teams in the regular season.
Most of Murrays stats have come against bad passing defenses and at home. Although this is in the Georgia Dome I give Alabama the advantage. There is a ton of media that are hyping up Georgia and telling them how good they are meanwhile Alabama thinks everyone is against them and they seem to have more focus. Even S Bacarri Rambo of Georgia said, "I feel like we're more talented." Maybe you have more NFL talent, but Alabama is a better overall team, better coached and it is not even close in my opinion.
First of all this great Georgia defense is about ot face the most balanced offense they've faced all year. Alabama is averaging 5.35 ypc in conference play and with the emergence of Amari Cooper Georgia has to honor the pass. Georgia has also been beat through the air and on the ground at times this year. Despite only allowing 3.34 ypc in conference play it's been mostly against the weaker teams. They just got done allowing 608 yards in their last 2 games combined to Georgia Southern, FCS team and Georgia Tech. Although those are option teams it gives you an idea that their are holes in this defense and that's something Nick Saban and his staff are great at exploiting. In fact Georgia gave up 4.79 to Kentucky on the ground who are ranked 85th, 4.51 ypc to South Carolina ranked 101st, and 4.93 to Tennessee who are ranked 37th. Look for Georgia to get aggressive at some point on defense in this game with the blitz and look for A.J. McCarron to burn them. He's got just 2 interceptions on the year and will quietly once again out play Aaron Murray.
IF you are still not convinced let me lay down some more conference stats. Alabama was better in third down offense 48.5% to 42%, better in the red zone getting their 7 more times and converting on 82% of those opportunities for TD's on the road/neutral games vs. Georgia who converted 65% into TD's in a weaker schedule. Both teams are good in turnover margin but Alabama is better as they are also in tackles for loss differential, sack differential, penalties per game. Lastly let me finish by saying how they were lucky against Florida since this is the reason they are here. Florida turned the ball over 6 times in that game including a fumble that would have pulled them within one as they fumbled into the end zone at the end of the game. Florida who has a similar defense to Alabama held them to 1-10 on third down while they were 7-16 and this was all in Georgia's own building. Alabama is far more capable offensively and their defense is probably about the same. Alabama also won't be turning the ball over 6 times you can bet on that.
